Companion to the deep dive at
~/claude/output/deep-dive/agi-deep-dive.md. Focus: Q4 2025
/ FY 2025 earnings, the Feb 4 2026 Three-Year Guidance, the March 20
2026 NI 43-101 Island Gold District Expansion technical report, and the
March 26 2026 40-F/annual information form. Coverage of SEC EDGAR …
Companion to the deep dive at
~/claude/output/deep-dive/agi-deep-dive.md. Focus: Q4 2025 / FY 2025 earnings, the Feb 4 2026 Three-Year Guidance, the March 20 2026 NI 43-101 Island Gold District Expansion technical report, and the March 26 2026 40-F/annual information form. Coverage of SEC EDGAR (AGI is a Canadian foreign private issuer and files 40-F annual / 6-K interim) and SEDAR+ (Canadian primary disclosure).
AGI is a Canadian foreign private issuer (FPI) that files both with the SEC via EDGAR and with Canadian regulators via SEDAR+. The filing taxonomy is slightly different from a US domestic issuer:
| US SEC filing | AGI equivalent | Where |
|---|---|---|
| 10-K (annual report) | 40-F (annual), Annual Information Form (AIF) | EDGAR + SEDAR+ |
| 10-Q (quarterly) | 6-K (interim reports of earnings, MD&A, financials) | EDGAR (6-K) + SEDAR+ (MD&A, FS) |
| 8-K (material events) | 6-K (material events and disclosures) | EDGAR (6-K) + SEDAR+ (news releases) |
| DEF 14A (proxy) | Management Information Circular | SEDAR+ (primary) + EDGAR (6-K reference) |
| Form 4 (insider) | SEDI insider reports | SEDI only (not EDGAR) |
| 13D/13G (5%+ holder) | Early warning reports / alternative monthly reports | SEDAR+ |
| NI 43-101 technical report | no SEC equivalent | SEDAR+ (primary), EDGAR (6-K exhibit) |
The practical takeaway: EDGAR alone will not show you insider transactions for AGI because AGI files insider reports to SEDI (the Canadian system), not to SEC Forms 3/4/5. Insider work requires going to SEDI at sedi.ca.
| Date | Filing type | Venue | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 40-F / Annual Information Form | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | FY2025 audited financial statements, MD&A, AIF, full risk factor disclosure |
| 2026-03-20 | 6-K / NI 43-101 Technical Report | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Island Gold District Expansion Technical Report (Qualified Person signed) |
| 2026-02-18 | 6-K (earnings) | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Q4 2025 and Year-End 2025 Results |
| 2026-02-17 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Year-End 2025 Mineral Reserves and Resources |
| 2026-02-04 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Three-Year Operating Guidance (2026-2028) |
| 2026-02-04 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Island Gold District Expansion to 20,000 TPD announcement |
| 2026-01-14 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Q4 2025 and Annual 2025 Production Release |
| 2025-11 [VERIFY exact date] | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Q3 2025 Results, dividend declaration, NCIB renewal |
| 2025-12 [VERIFY exact date] | 6-K / NCIB filing | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | NCIB renewal announcement (up to 18.6M shares) |
| 2025-08 [VERIFY] | 6-K (earnings) | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Q2 2025 Results |
| 2025-05-30 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Annual General Meeting results, board changes |
| 2025-05 [VERIFY] | 6-K (earnings) | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Q1 2025 Results |
| 2025-04 [VERIFY] | Management Information Circular | SEDAR+ | 2025 Proxy circular for May AGM |
| 2025-03-26 [VERIFY] | 40-F | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | FY2024 annual report |
| 2025-01-08 | 6-K | EDGAR + SEDAR+ | Appointment of J. Robert S. Prichard as Chair |
| Date | Filing | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | NI 43-101 Technical Report — Island Gold District Expansion | Integrates Island Gold underground + Magino open pit into single operating district. 8.3 Moz P&P reserves at 2.01 g/t. Base case $3,200 gold. [VERIFY filed under SEDAR+ Issuer Profile: Alamos Gold Inc.] |
| [VERIFY] | Lynn Lake NI 43-101 | Updated feasibility for BT + Linkwood satellite deposits |
| [VERIFY] | Mulatos District NI 43-101 | Current LOM plan including La Yaqui Grande and PDA |
Released Feb 18, 2026. This is the most important filing to understand because it resolves the 2025 weather miss narrative and sets the baseline for the 2026 guidance walk.
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Full Year 2025 | vs FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (koz) | 141.5 | 545.4 | -4% |
| Revenue | $575.3M | $1,800M | +34% |
| Net earnings | $434.9M | $885.8M | [VERIFY] |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.03 | $2.11 | [VERIFY] |
| Adjusted net earnings | $227.6M | $587.1M | [VERIFY] |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.54 | $1.40 | [VERIFY] |
| Operating cash flow | [VERIFY Q4] | $795.3M | +20% |
| Free cash flow | $156.9M (record) | 351.7M(record)|[VERIFYYoY]||Totalcashcosts(/oz) | [VERIFY Q4] |
Source: Q4 & Year-End 2025 Results press release (Feb 18 2026)
The gap between $885.8M reported net earnings and $587.1M adjusted net earnings is $298.7M. That is a material adjustment and it means the headline trailing P/E of ~22x is misleading. On adjusted earnings, P/E is closer to 33x.
The adjustments are understood to include non-cash items, potentially including deferred tax adjustments, foreign exchange gains on US dollar-denominated balances, and possibly reversals of prior-period impairments [VERIFY exact composition from 40-F notes]. The point is that the “$2.11 reported EPS” looks cheap on a surface screen but the $1.40 adjusted EPS is the right number to anchor on.
| Mine | 2025 production (koz) | % of total |
|---|---|---|
| Island Gold District (Island Gold + Magino combined) | 250.4 | 46% |
| Young-Davidson | 153.4 | 28% |
| Mulatos District (incl. La Yaqui Grande, PDA) | 141.6 | 26% |
| Total | 545.4 | 100% |
Original 2025 guidance: 580-630 koz. Actual: 545.4 koz. Miss: ~35 koz below the low end, ~50 koz below midpoint.
Three causes per the Q4 release:
Severe December weather in northern Ontario. Young-Davidson and Island Gold both experienced winter-related disruption in December 2025. Specifically, blizzard and temperature conditions affected ore haulage and mill feed consistency.
Magino SAG mill discharge liner replacement. Magino was supposed to average 10,000 tpd for the year. Actual Q4 was 8,625 tpd (29% above prior-year levels but below plan). The cause: an earlier-than-planned SAG mill discharge liner replacement. The liner failed faster than expected, which is a known risk in first-year-of-operation mills running harder ore than the design spec assumed.
Operational softness at Young-Davidson in Q4. [VERIFY specific cause — may relate to mining sequence issues in the deepest working levels, which has been a recurring Young-Davidson concern]
The miss is real but not structural. None of the three causes indicates a reserve problem, an asset-quality problem, or a capital allocation problem. The December weather issue is literal weather. The SAG mill liner issue is a first-year-of-operation wear-and-tear problem that will resolve with normal maintenance. The Young-Davidson operational softness is mine-sequence management, not deposit quality.
The Q4 earnings call transcript [VERIFY — referenced in Motley Fool coverage] reportedly confirmed that management did not walk back the long-term plan at all. The three-year guidance released Feb 4 (two weeks before the Q4 earnings release) is the operative guide, and it is unchanged from the prior expectations set at the Investor Day.
The punchline from Q4 2025: AGI generated record free cash flow in a year when it missed production guidance by 5-8%. That is the operating leverage to gold price showing up clearly. At $3,372/oz realized, every ounce mined at $1,524 AISC throws off $1,848 of cash margin. Missing 35koz of production cost the company maybe $65M of cash (0.2% of market cap). The gold price tailwind more than offset the ounce miss.
This is the most important forward-looking document. Released at the Investor Day on Feb 4, 2026.
| Mine | 2026 (koz) | 2027 (koz) | 2028 (koz) | CAGR 2025→2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Gold District | 290-330 | 380-420 | 470-510 | +25% CAGR |
| Young-Davidson | 155-175 | 155-175 | 155-175 | Flat |
| Mulatos District | 125-145 | 115-135 | 130-150 | Slightly negative |
| Total | 570-650 | 650-730 | 755-835 | +13% CAGR |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Change 2025→2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cash costs ($/oz) | $1,020-1,120 | $825-925 | 775 − 875|−23|AISC(/oz) | $1,500-1,600 |
| Category | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sustaining capital | $193-220 | $235-255 | $210-235 |
| Growth capital (operating) | $140-155 | $40-60 | $30-45 |
| Island Gold District Expansion (incl. Phase 3+) | $240-260 | $130-145 | $80-90 |
| Lynn Lake | $140-160 | $380-410 | $290-310 |
| Total | $850-940 | $800-890 | $610-680 |
First, 2026 is the capex peak year at $895M midpoint. 2026 FCF will compress meaningfully versus 2025 because capex is $450M higher while production is only ~10% higher. This compresses FCF to something like $50-100M for 2026, then recovers to $300M in 2027 and $750M+ in 2028 as capex rolls off and production ramps.
The market is currently pricing in the 2026 FCF compression (that’s why the forward FCF yield looks low). The upside is in understanding that 2026 is a trough, not a trend.
Second, Lynn Lake capex profile shifts meaningfully. The wildfire-delayed restart means 2026 is only $140-160M of Lynn Lake spend (down 43% from prior guidance), with the heavy spend shifting to 2027 ($395M midpoint) and 2028 ($300M midpoint). The 2027 cash flow year will be the Lynn Lake construction crunch.
Beyond the three-year window, management reiterated the “approximately one million ounces per year by 2030” target driven by:
Source: Three-Year Operating Guidance press release, Feb 4 2026
This is the filing that changed the character of the Island Gold District story. Before March 20, the District Expansion economics were a management press release. After March 20, they are a Qualified Person-signed NI 43-101 technical report filed on SEDAR+ and EDGAR.
The document is an NI 43-101 technical report in support of the Feb 4 2026 announcement. It integrates Island Gold underground and Magino open pit into a single operating district and backs up the disclosed production, cost, and capital numbers with the required independent technical review.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Reserves (combined district) | 8.3 Moz at 2.01 g/t |
| Reserve tonnes | 128.2 Mt |
| Measured + Indicated resources (as of Dec 31 2025) | 2,029 koz at 1.07 g/t (additional 58,891 kt) |
| Mine life | 19 years |
| Average annual production (first 10 years, 2028-2037) | 534,000 oz |
| Total cash cost (10-year avg) | $682/oz |
| Mine-site AISC (10-year avg) | $1,025/oz |
| Mill capacity (post-expansion) | 20,000 tpd |
| Underground mining rate (2029+) | 3,000 tpd |
| Open pit mining rate | 17,000 tpd of ore |
| Total life-of-mine capital | $3,046M |
| Growth capital (expansion only) | $542M |
| Sustaining capital (LOM) | $2,342M |
| Capital per ounce sold | $393/oz |
| Gold price ($/oz) | After-tax NPV (5%) | After-tax IRR |
|---|---|---|
| $2,800 | $6.05B | 43% |
| $3,200 (base case) | $8.16B | 53% |
| $3,600 | $8.96B | 56% |
| $4,000 | $10.42B | 62% |
| $4,500 | $12.24B | 69% |
| $5,000 | $14.06B | 75% |
| $5,500 | $15.88B | 81% |
The critical point: the company’s base case is $3,200 gold, not $4,500 gold. The $12.24B / 69% IRR headline number that has been quoted in coverage is the $4,500 case, which is above today’s spot. At the $3,200 base case, the NPV is still $8.16B — more than 10x the growth capex required. The project works at significantly lower gold prices than current spot.
Source: Alamos Gold Files Technical Report, March 20 2026 press release
Filed on SEDAR+ under Issuer Profile: Alamos Gold Inc. Also filed as a 6-K exhibit on EDGAR. Available on the company’s own website at alamosgold.com.
Filed March 26, 2026. This is the most recent comprehensive disclosure document. Contains:
Full risk factor section. AIF risk factors are more detailed than the press release summaries. Specifically: succession planning language, climate-related disclosures, Indigenous consultation risks for Lynn Lake, Mexican country risk language.
Reserve and resource detail by asset. The AIF will contain the full Year-End 2025 Mineral Reserves and Resources by asset, with cutoff grades, metallurgical recovery assumptions, and mine plan sensitivities. The headline number is 15.9 Moz P&P (+32% YoY).
Related-party transactions section. Under Item 13 of the 40-F. This is where any management forensic red flags would surface. Default expectation: clean.
Executive compensation Item 11. The 40-F does not contain full comp detail — that’s in the management circular. But it will include summary tables.
Off-balance-sheet commitments. Power purchase agreements, take-or-pay obligations, tailings closure commitments, community benefit agreements.
Legal proceedings. Any outstanding litigation, including environmental and Indigenous consultation-related matters.
Auditor’s critical audit matters (CAMs). For a mining company these typically include reserve estimation, impairment testing, and asset retirement obligations.
Source: 2025 Annual Report filing announcement, March 26 2026
Action item: Pink should download the full 40-F from EDGAR and the AIF from SEDAR+ and read the risk factors and related-party sections. I have not done this in full for this review.
Released one day before Q4 earnings. This is the year-end 2025 mineral reserves and resources statement.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global P&P reserves (Moz) | 15.9 | ~12.0 [VERIFY] | +32% |
| Reserve grade (g/t Au) | 1.87 | ~1.78 [VERIFY] | +5% |
| Island Gold reserves (Moz) | 5.1 | ~2.3 [VERIFY] | +125% |
| Island Gold reserve grade | 10.61 g/t | ~10.8 g/t [VERIFY] | slight dilution |
| Magino reserves (Moz) | 3.1 | ~2.0 | +56% |
| Young-Davidson reserves (Moz) | [VERIFY] | [VERIFY] | [VERIFY] |
| Mulatos District reserves (Moz) | [VERIFY] | [VERIFY] | [VERIFY] |
| Lynn Lake reserves (Moz) | [VERIFY post-BT/Linkwood update] | [VERIFY] | [VERIFY] |
Source: Reserves and Resources for Year-End 2025 press release, Feb 17 2026
Mining companies that grow reserves are rare. The global gold mining industry has been under-investing in exploration for a decade, and most producers are struggling just to replace the ounces they mine each year (replacement ratio near 1x). A 32% increase is exceptional.
The reserve additions come from two main sources: 1. Island Gold drilling success. The down-plunge extension and lateral discoveries at Island Gold delivered a +125% reserve increase. This is the payoff from the exploration spend and from the reserve classification update that comes with the District Expansion technical report. 2. Magino reserve reclassification. The +56% growth at Magino reflects better pit optimization and incorporation into the combined district mine plan.
The reserve growth is the foundation of the multi-decade production story. At 15.9 Moz and current ~550koz annual mining, reserve life is ~29 years. Mining at 900koz/yr in 2028+ still gives a reserve life of 17+ years, with exploration upside layered on top.
AGI is a Canadian foreign private issuer. Its insider transactions are reported to SEDI (System for Electronic Disclosure by Insiders) at sedi.ca, not to the SEC on Forms 3/4/5. Standard US insider screeners like OpenInsider, SecForm4, and Bloomberg’s Insider Transactions screen do not capture AGI insider activity comprehensively.
To pull full insider data, Pink or I would need to go to SEDI directly and search by issuer name “Alamos Gold Inc.”
Pink should check SEDI directly for: 1. McCluskey’s share position and any 2025/2026 open-market purchases or sales 2. Any director sales following the Feb 4 2026 Investor Day (common pattern for insiders to sell into good news) 3. Any director purchases in Q4 2025 following the December weather miss (opposite pattern — conviction buying into a short-term miss) 4. 10b5-1 plan filings — automatic selling programs
Default expectation: neutral insider activity. No red flags surfaced in the news flow, and the governance structure is clean (single class of shares, no poison pill, annual elections, majority voting). Insider ownership is historically low at ~1-2% combined which is typical of a professionally-managed mid-tier producer.
[VERIFY by pulling SEDI data directly — action item for Pink]
Material events disclosed via 6-K or news release in Q1 2026:
| Date | Event | Category | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Three-Year Operating Guidance released | Forward-looking disclosure | Critical |
| 2026-02-04 | Island Gold District Expansion to 20,000 TPD announced | Material project sanction | Critical |
| 2026-02-04 | Investor Day held in Toronto | Corporate event | High |
| 2026-02-17 | Year-End 2025 Mineral Reserves and Resources | Annual reserve update | High |
| 2026-02-18 | Q4 2025 and Year-End 2025 Results | Earnings | Critical |
| Date | Event | Category | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | NI 43-101 Technical Report filed for Island Gold District Expansion | Technical disclosure | Critical |
| 2026-03-26 | 40-F and Annual Information Form filed for FY2025 | Annual report | High |
| Date | Event | Category | Importance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Q4 2025 and Annual 2025 Production Release (pre-earnings) | Preliminary production disclosure | High |
No 6-K events in the last 90 days suggest anything unusual. No management departures, no litigation announcements, no covenant breaches, no strategic reviews, no activist letters, no takeover rumors, no regulatory actions. The disclosure pattern is consistent with a well-run mid-tier producer executing a planned growth program on schedule.
The Argonaut Gold acquisition (closed July 12, 2024) brought Magino into the AGI portfolio. One year of operating experience is now visible in disclosures. Key points from the Q4 2025 release and the three-year guidance:
Per the original acquisition thesis, Magino + Island Gold combined is supposed to generate $515M pre-tax undiscounted synergies ($250M after-tax NPV). The Feb 4 2026 Island Gold District Expansion announcement effectively formalizes and exceeds this synergy number. The 8.3 Moz combined reserve base at 2.01 g/t is 30% larger than the pre-combination plan.
Items worth watching in future quarterly disclosures:
| Flag | Detail | Why watch |
|---|---|---|
| Magino mill throughput | Need to see ramp to 10,000 tpd by Q3 2026 | Gates the 20,000 tpd expansion |
| Phase 3+ shaft commissioning | Target: Q4 2026 | Gates the 2028 production ramp |
| Young-Davidson Q4 operational issue | Need clarity on whether this is a mine-sequence issue or structural | Potential reserve life or cost concern |
| Lynn Lake construction restart | Target: Spring 2026 | Confirms 1H 2029 first gold |
| CEO succession | No public plan | Key-person risk |
| Gold price sensitivity disclosure | Next annual reserve report | 2026 reserves calculated at Dec 31 2025 price assumption |
| Insider transactions | SEDI | Need direct SEDI review |
| Related-party transactions | 40-F Item 13 | Governance forensic check |
[VERIFY — I have not read the Q4 2025 earnings call transcript in full. The Motley Fool version is linked in the deep dive sources. Action for follow-up filings review: pull and summarize the management commentary on:]
| Date (expected) | Event | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 production and operational update | Canadian Q1 performance post-winter; Phase 3+ progress |
| Late April / early May 2026 | Q1 2026 financial results | Cash flow, capex pace, 2026 guidance reaffirmation |
| May 2026 | AGM and management information circular | Governance disclosure, executive comp, any director changes |
| July 2026 | Q2 2026 production and financials | Magino mill reaching 10,000 tpd is the key |
| October 2026 | Q3 2026 results | Phase 3+ commissioning timeline confirmed |
| December 2026 | Grid power tie-in at Magino; Phase 3+ commissioning | Critical milestone |
| January 2027 | 2026 annual production | 2026 actual vs 570-650 koz guide |
| February 2027 | Q4 2026 earnings + 2026 reserves + 2027 guidance | Comprehensive update |
Q4 2025 earnings confirmed a 545.4 koz 2025 production result (below 580-630 original guide) with record $351.7M FCF. The miss was weather-driven (December snowstorms) plus a SAG mill liner issue at Magino. Not structural.
Three-year guidance (Feb 4 2026) is the operative framework: 570-650 in 2026 → 650-730 in 2027 → 755-835 in 2028. 46% production growth, 18% AISC decline.
Island Gold District NI 43-101 technical report (filed March 20 2026) formally backs up the $8.16B base case NPV at $3,200 gold and $12.24B NPV at $4,500 gold. 8.3 Moz at 2.01 g/t reserves, 19-year mine life, $1,025/oz AISC, $534koz/yr average production.
Reserves grew 32% YoY to 15.9 Moz — best in the peer group. Island Gold alone grew 125% to 5.1 Moz at 10.61 g/t.
Magino integration is on track but not without friction. Grid power tie-in end of 2026 is the next major margin lever. Mill expansion to 20,000 tpd by Q1 2028 is the remaining execution risk in the thesis.
40-F and AIF filed March 26 2026 — comprehensive disclosure document for FY2025. Not yet fully reviewed in this filings pass. Action item to pull and review risk factors, related-party transactions, and executive compensation detail.
No red flags in last 90 days. No material adverse events, no litigation announcements, no governance issues, no insider selling surge (per secondary sources — SEDI not yet checked directly).
SEC EDGAR and SEDAR+: - SEDAR+ — Alamos Gold Inc. issuer profile - SEC EDGAR — Alamos Gold Inc. filings (CIK 1178819) - SEDI — Canadian insider filing system
Primary company press releases: - Q4 & Year-End 2025 Results (Feb 18, 2026) - Three-Year Operating Guidance (Feb 4, 2026) - Island Gold District Expansion to 20,000 TPD (Feb 4, 2026) - NI 43-101 Technical Report Filing (March 20, 2026) - Year-End 2025 Mineral Reserves and Resources (Feb 17, 2026) - 2025 Annual Report and 40-F Filing (March 26, 2026) - Q4 & Annual 2025 Production (Jan 14, 2026) - 2026 Investor Day Presentation PDF (Feb 4, 2026) - Prichard appointed as Chair (Jan 8, 2025) - AGM Results & Board Changes (May 30, 2025)
Earnings call transcripts: - Q4 2025 Earnings Call (Motley Fool) — [VERIFY transcript completeness]
Internal: - [[AGI]] (profile, 2026-04-07) - [[agi-deep-dive]] (companion investment write-up, 2026-04-08) - [[gold-no-africa-screen]]
Items in this filings review that need primary-source verification: