A €115m revenue German laser-systems specialist that the market has rerated 5x in twelve months on a glass substrate option. Core business is shrinking, FY2025 closed at a net loss, Q1 2026 was worse, and consensus price targets sit at less than half the current quote. The bull case rests entirely o…
A €115m revenue German laser-systems specialist that the market has rerated 5x in twelve months on a glass substrate option. Core business is shrinking, FY2025 closed at a net loss, Q1 2026 was worse, and consensus price targets sit at less than half the current quote. The bull case rests entirely on whether LIDE (laser-induced deep etching) becomes the qualified TGV process for Intel-class glass core packaging in 2027–2029.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Legal name | LPKF Laser & Electronics SE |
| HQ | Garbsen, Germany (Hannover region) |
| Founded | 1976 |
| IPO | 1998 (Frankfurt Prime Standard) |
| Primary listing | XETRA, ticker LPK (Bloomberg LPK GR; Reuters LPKG.DE) |
| Yahoo ticker | LPK.DE |
| ADR / OTC | LPKFF (unsponsored OTC) |
| ISIN | DE0006450000 |
| WKN | 645000 |
| Shares outstanding | 24,496,546 |
| Free float | 89.4% |
| Last close | €28.40 (8 May 2026) |
| Market cap | ~€696m / ~$760m USD |
| 52-week range | €5.35 – €29.90 |
| YTD performance | +215% (year-end 2025 close: €5.59) |
| Consensus 12m PT | ~€10–15 (Yahoo: €15.50; stocksguide: €10.65 avg) |
| Website | lpkf.com |
| FY2025 revenue | €115.3m |
| FY2025 net income | –€14.3m |
Sources: lpkf.com investor relations share page; Yahoo Finance LPK.DE; stockanalysis.com; FY2025 release.
LPKF builds laser-based production systems sold as capital equipment to four end markets:
The four segments are co-listed in the segment reporting; the LIDE glass substrate program sits inside Electronics but is the only growth narrative the equity now trades on.
For the glass core / TGV / advanced-packaging context behind LIDE, see [[packaging-glass-substrate-primer]]. LPKF is named there as a Tier-2 player alongside E&R Engineering ([[8027]]) on the TGV laser-drilling step. The primer’s read on LPKF stands; this profile fills in everything else.
LPKF does not publish full-year revenue per segment in its press releases, but disclosed quarterly and full-year datapoints triangulate as follows.
| Segment | Revenue | Direction | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar | >€40m | Record year | Single largest segment; thin-film order ramp |
| Welding | ~€25–30m (est.) | –20% YoY | Auto weakness |
| Electronics | ~€30–35m (est.) | Roughly flat | Depaneling stable; LIDE pre-revenue |
| Development | ~€20–25m (est.) | Stable | Annuity-like |
Source: FY2024 press release (Solar disclosed); Welding/Electronics/Development not disclosed individually — estimate by residual.
Solar reverted from record FY2024 (€40m+) to ordinary; Electronics and Solar were the drags, Welding and Development grew modestly. Group EBIT adjusted €0.8m (margin 0.7%); net loss €14.3m on restructuring and impairment. Order intake €91.6m (book-to-bill 0.79); backlog €27.1m at year-end.
| Segment | Q1 2026 Revenue | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Development | €6.2m | €5.7m | +€0.5m (delayed US gov-shutdown orders flowed through; defence demand strong) |
| Electronics | €5.5m | €5.6m | Flat |
| Solar | small | €10.6m | Sharp decline; the swing factor |
| Welding | residual | residual | N/A — not separately disclosed in Q1 release |
| Group | €17.1m | €25.3m | –32% |
EBIT –€6.9m (vs –€3.9m); adjusted EBIT –€5.7m. Order intake €24.1m (book-to-bill 1.4 — first positive signal in five quarters). Backlog now ~€34m.
The Solar collapse from €10.6m to a low single-digit number is the single biggest line-item move and the reason FY2026 guidance brackets a continuing operating loss.
LPKF does not publish a clean geographic split in press releases. The annual report breaks revenue across Germany, Rest of Europe, Asia, and Americas. Approximate FY2024 mix per the management discussion: Asia ~45%, Europe (incl. Germany) ~30–35%, Americas ~20–25%. Asia exposure runs through the Solar (Chinese thin-film customers), Welding (Korean and Chinese auto OEMs), and Electronics (Taiwan, Japan PCB houses) channels. US tariffs and “increasing protectionism” were called out by management as a FY2025 headwind — implies meaningful US-bound shipment value at risk.
N/A — exact FY2025 geographic split not disclosed in available press materials.
LPKF’s customer base is fragmented and largely undisclosed.
Customer concentration risk concentrates entirely in Solar (handful of cell makers) and the future LIDE business (likely 2–4 IDM/OSAT customers when it ramps). The base business is well diversified.
German two-tier board structure: Vorstand (Management Board) runs the company; Aufsichtsrat (Supervisory Board) hires/fires the Vorstand and represents shareholders.
| Name | Role | Tenure | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Klaus Fiedler | CEO | Jan 2022 – Dec 2028 | Strategy, sales, manufacturing, R&D. Architect of the “North Star” transformation. |
| Peter Mümmler | CFO | Apr 2025 – Mar 2028 | Predecessor Christian Witt departed by mutual agreement at end of 2024. Mümmler comes from outside the firm. |
No CTO position. The two-person Vorstand is small even by German Mittelstand standards.
| Name | Role | Member since | Until |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Siebert | Chairwoman | June 2023 | AGM 2027 |
| Dr. Dirk Rothweiler | Deputy Chairman | June 2017 | AGM 2026 |
| Prof. Dr.-Ing. Ludger Overmeyer | Member | June 2019 | AGM 2028 |
| Anka Wittenberg | Member | May 2023 | AGM 2027 |
| Paul Owsianowski | Member | June 2025 | AGM 2029 |
Five members, two female, one academic (Overmeyer leads the Hannover transport/automation institute). Active Ownership Capital (the 10.6% holder) does not have a named board seat per public disclosures — but Owsianowski’s June 2025 election to a four-year term coincides with the activist’s continued presence.
N/A — Simply Wall St reports “insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.” No major insider buy on the way up from €5 to €28 has been disclosed. The November 2024 share buyback (21,402 shares at €8.55) is the only recent treasury action.
All figures in EUR millions unless stated.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Q1 2026 | FY2026E (guidance) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 124.3 | 122.9 | 115.3 | 17.1 | 105–120 |
| Revenue YoY | n/a | –1.1% | –6.2% | –32% | (–9% to +4%) |
| Adjusted EBIT | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | (5.7) | (margin –3.0% to +4.5%) |
| EBIT (reported) | 3.7 | (2.5) | N/A | (6.9) | N/A |
| EBIT margin (adj.) | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | n/a | –3.0% to +4.5% |
| Net income | N/A | N/A | (14.3) | N/A | N/A |
| EPS (reported) | N/A | N/A | (0.71) | N/A | N/A |
| Order intake | N/A | 114.3 | 91.6 | 24.1 | N/A |
| Order backlog | N/A | 50.9 | 27.1 | ~34 (implied) | N/A |
| Free cash flow | N/A | 1.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Net debt / (cash) | ~zero | ~zero | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Equity ratio | N/A | 69.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Headcount | N/A | >750 | N/A | N/A | reducing under North Star |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | – | 0.00 (no recommendation) |
Sources: lpkf.com FY2023, FY2024, FY2025 press releases; Q1 2026 press release; stockanalysis.com (FY2025 net income, EPS).
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | ~€696m | At €28.40 close |
| Net debt | ~€0 (FY2024 net cash neutral; FY2025 loss likely turned this slightly negative) | Pre-2026 cash burn |
| Enterprise value | ~€700m (estimate) | Net cash position not updated for Q1 2026 |
| EV / FY2025 revenue | ~6.1x | High for a no-growth industrial laser house |
| EV / FY2024 EBIT | n/m | Adjusted EBIT was €0.1m |
| P/E | n/m | Loss-making |
| FCF yield | <1% | FY2024 FCF €1.9m on a €696m market cap |
| EV / consensus FY2027E sales | unknown | No public 2027 consensus located |
The valuation is option premium on the LIDE business, not a fundamentals multiple. Strip the option and the underlying ~€115m revenue, near-zero EBIT, no-dividend, no-buyback business is worth perhaps 1–1.5x sales (€100–175m EV) on Mittelstand industrial comparables. The market is pricing roughly €500m of LIDE option value.
Next earnings: 23 July 2026 (H1 2026 / Q2 2026).
| Risk | Likelihood | Mitigants | De-risk plan to monitor | Closable? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIDE fails to convert to commercial orders by 2027 — base case in the rally rests on Q2 2026 first major orders + 2027 ramp; if either slips a quarter, the option premium compresses violently | Medium-High. Customer cycle is multi-year and LPKF cannot control IDM qualification timelines | Multiple customers in qualification per management; Trendforce ecosystem inclusion; Apple-like LDS history shows LPKF has converted laser tech to high-volume before | Q2 2026 (July report) — watch for “first major LIDE order” announcement in line with Hauck Aufhäuser thesis | Yes — single binary catalyst at 23 July |
| Solar segment continues to collapse — was 33% of FY2024 revenue (€40m+) at peak, now run-rating to single-digit €m | High. Q1 2026 already showed collapse from €10.6m to small single-digit; thin-film customer base is shrinking | Perovskite optionality is real but 2027+ technology; will not bridge revenue gap in 2026 | Quarterly Solar segment revenue trend; perovskite customer wins (Oxford PV, CubicPV cohort) | Partial — perovskite ramp could rescue, but not before 2027 |
| Customer concentration in future LIDE business — when LIDE ramps it will be 2–4 IDM/OSAT customers; loss of one customer = single-digit-percent revenue swing | Inherent to semicap | Diversification across foundry, OSAT, IDM customer types | LPKF customer disclosure (unlikely to be specific); secondary signals from Intel, TSMC packaging capex | No — structural |
| Valuation reset risk — €28 vs consensus €10–15 PT; 5x multiple of consensus EV/sales | Very High in absolute terms | Float is high (89.4%) so squeeze dynamics moderate; the rally is fundamental-narrative driven, not short-squeeze | Hauck Aufhäuser order timing; analyst PT revisions post Q2 | No — inherent to the trade |
| Dilution risk — share count has been stable at 24.5m; “shareholders not meaningfully diluted in past year” per Simply Wall St; no equity raise announced | Low currently. But if LIDE ramps and LPKF needs capex, an equity raise into the rally would be tempting | Equity ratio 69.7% (FY2024) gives runway; €700m market cap means even a 10% raise at €25 = €70m, accretive to LIDE capex | Watch ad-hoc disclosures for capital measures; AGM authorisations | Yes — would be telegraphed |
| Founder / activist exit risk — Active Ownership Capital holds 10.6%. They are a long-only activist and the stock is at a 5x bagger from their entry | Medium. Activists do exit into strength | Active Ownership has not filed a sale disclosure as of latest available data | German voting rights notifications (>3% threshold each direction) | Yes — fully transparent |
| Auto cyclicality (Welding) — German auto OEM weakness already cost LPKF ~20% of Welding revenue in FY2024 | Medium-High structurally | EV transition keeps laser welding relevant (battery cell, plastic housing); medical device adjacency | Welding segment quarterly revenue | No — structural |
| Currency — reports in EUR; 50%+ revenue outside EUR; USD/EUR weakness compresses translated revenue | Medium | Large EU customer base provides natural hedge for cost side | EUR-denominated revenue per quarter | No — structural |
| Holder | Stake | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Active Ownership Capital S.à r.l. | 10.6% | Luxembourg-based long-only activist; entered around 2018–2019; major influence on board composition |
| Lupus Alpha Asset Management | 1.2% | German small-cap specialist |
| Kreissparkasse Biberach | 1.0% | German savings bank |
| FPM Frankfurt Performance Management | 0.8% | German value house |
| Fourton Oy | 0.8% | Finnish asset manager |
| Top 25 holders combined | ~19% | Long-tail ownership; very high free float |
| Free float | 89.4% | Per LPKF IR page |
| Insider ownership | <1% (estimate) | No founding family stake; no CEO equity disclosure of size |
| Short interest | N/A — not disclosed in available sources | German small-caps rarely have public short data |
The ownership structure is professional-investor-light, retail-heavy — consistent with the social-media-driven rally narrative. Active Ownership is the only single voice >5%; they are aligned with the North Star turnaround narrative.
There is no founding family block despite the 1976 founding date — the founders exited well before the 1998 IPO and the company has been a pure free-float entity for over 25 years.
Coverage is thin (typical for a German Prime Standard small-cap). The two visible names are:
Consensus (per stocksguide, 2 analysts): - Average 12-month PT: €10.65 - Range: €9.00 – €12.30 - Rating: Neutral
Yahoo Finance shows 1-year target estimate of €15.50.
The €10.65–15.50 consensus PT vs €28.40 current price implies analysts see 45%–62% downside. Pink should weight this against the fact that consensus has been wrong in both directions on small-cap European semicap names through cycles — and that the LIDE catalyst is genuinely binary and not in any conventional DCF.
LPKF is no longer a “Tier-2 glass substrate equipment play” trading at a quiet €150m option price. As of 8 May 2026 it is a €700m market cap pure narrative trade where the underlying €115m revenue business is shrinking, loss-making, and undergoing restructuring, while the LIDE option commands roughly €500m of implied value.
The investment question has bifurcated: - If you believe LIDE wins a real Intel-class TGV order in 2026–2027, current price may still be early — but the call has the same payoff as buying a call option on E&R Engineering ([[8027]]) without the diversified flat-panel display equipment downside protection. - If you do not have conviction on LIDE timing, this is a difficult short candidate (high free float, narrative momentum, asymmetric catalyst risk on 23 July) but a clearly poor long entry vs the May 2025 rerating point.
The 23 July 2026 H1 print is the next catalyst. The two things to watch are: (1) any “first major LIDE order” disclosure in line with the Hauck Aufhäuser thesis, and (2) Solar segment Q2 trajectory — if Solar is still falling, the consensus FY2026 revenue range (€105–120m) is at risk of a downward revision before LIDE can offset.
This is not a cheap industrial laser company. It is a venture-style bet on glass substrate qualification timing, priced at €700m, with the fundamentals giving you no margin of safety. Treat accordingly.
Internal cross-references: [[packaging-glass-substrate-primer]] (glass core IC substrate context), [[8027]] (E&R Engineering TGV peer)